-PHI Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) | 0.5 Units
-PHI Phillies -1.5 (+100) | 0.25 Units
-ARI Diamondbacks v TOR Blue Jays Over 9.0 (-120) | 0.25 Units
-KC Royals v TEX Rangers Under 8.0 (-105) | 0.25 Units
-HOU Astros -1.5 (+100) | 0.25 Units
Why These Picks?
PHI Phillies v MIA Marlins: Marlins pitcher Adam Mazur is making his Marlins debut tonight – and the Phillies might be one of the toughest sets of training wheels out there. Even with Bryce Harper out and Castellanos potentially still sitting (suspension), I think the Phillies will be eager to rectify yesterday’s loss and run up a high score on the newbie. To boot, Ranger Suarez (2.32 ERA) has been an Ace over the last month – he should have no issue keeping Miami in check. My money’s on Philly to cover the RL and put at least 5 in the bag here.
ARI Diamondbacks v TOR Blue Jays: I’ve gotta run this one back, friends. Eduardo Rodriguez has had a couple of good outings, but to be frank, I don’t trust the circumstances tonight. It looks like the Blue Jays will play a bullpen game, unless they plan on keeping Relief Pitcher Eric Lauer in for more than 2 innings – and hell, they might! Lauer pitched 4 innings against the Cardinals just last week – the man’s impressive. But in any case, the bullpen will make its entrance earlier than normal. And with Arizona struggling in the pitching department, I’ll take the Over to cash.
KC Royals v TEX Rangers: Funnily enough, in their last 5 straight meetings, these squads haven't managed to go Over 8 runs. Both of today's starters are more than capable – and despite Kris Bubic having an off game against the Yankees with 5 ERs, the Under still pushed in that game. Bubic has only allowed 1 run (or less) in 4 of his last 5 outings. On the other side, Rangers starter Patrick Corbin hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 5 trips to the mound. I'll roll with the Under again to cash here for a nice price.
HOU Astros v The Athletics: The Athletics offense is just severely outgunned in my opinion, and Framber Valdez is a far more reliable pitcher these days than Severino, who has allowed 14 runs in his last 3 outings. While it's a little less likely that Houston stomps them 12-2 again (but certainly not outside the realm of possibility...), I say they at least over the RL tonight. Give me the Astros to win by 2.
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